The non-farm payrolls preview for May 8, 2015 that sticks to the numbers:

Release time is Friday at 8:30 am ET (1330 GMT):

  • Median estimate 228K (225K private)
  • March reading: 126K
  • High est 327K (TrimTabs)
  • Low est 175K (Raymond James)
  • Avg of estimates made after ADP: 227K
  • Standard deviation: 30K
  • NFP 6-month avg 260K
  • Unemployment rate est. at 5.4% vs 5.5% prior
  • Prior participation rate 62.7%
  • ADP 169K vs 175K prior (200K exp)
  • ISM Feb manufacturing employment 48.3 vs 50.0 prior
  • ISM Feb non-manufacturing employment 56.7 vs 56.6 prior
  • Consumer Confidence jobs-hard-to-get: 26.4 vs 25.5 prior
  • Initial jobless claims 4-wk moving avg: 279.5K vs 285K at the time of the March jobs report
  • Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine showed demand for hiring down 104.5K
  • March 2015 US Challenger layoffs 61.6 vs 36.6K prior
  • Feb JOLTS job openings: 5133K vs 4965K prior

    • Non-farm payrolls net change

    I think the market is priced well-below 228K after Wednesday's soft ADP report. It has a spotty track record of predicting NFP but the most-recent report nailed the soft March payrolls data and markets have a short memory.

    I like the upside and also note that the April report tends to feature upward revisions to the two previous reports so that may bring some good news even if the report is soft. The ISM and jobless claims reports don't indicate any genuine alarm bells on the economy and ADP was likely an outlier.

    Two reasons for concern are the Challenger layoffs report and the soft HWOL survey. Those don't get much attention but they were soft so there might be something for the dollar bears to go on besides ADP.

    Overall, I like US dollar longs on a surprise. Goldman Sachs talked about reasons for non-farm payrolls optimism and I agree. Technically, the most-attractive trades are USD/CAD, USD/JPY and short gold. Keep away from the euro (because of the bond drama) and the pound (because of the election).