The top 5 NFP pickers went looking for sub 200k numbers last month but they all see a rebound this month
Here's a look at the best and brightest NFP guessers, with their picks for today, as scored by Bloomberg.
- Smith/Sweet - Moody's 215k
- Ted Wieseman - Morgan Stanley 210k
- Stephen Buu - CTI Capital 213k
- Stephen Stanley - Amherst Pierpoint 240k
- Wesbury/Stein - First Trust Advisors 223k
The general consensus today is for 190k
The hot and not of NFP forecasting
The market may have been expecting a better number but it was set up for possible disappointment and so the reaction in USDJPY was pretty muted. The quick drop reversal was also aided by the better unemployment rate and wages.
USDJPY reaction
We're pretty much looking at the same scenario this month, and most months from now on. It's less to do about the NFP number than it is the wages and unemployment numbers. That's part of the Fed's mandate remember so the volatility of payrolls can be largely ignored.
For trading it, almost ignore the headline number and concentrate on the other factors, unless it's a real outlier.
With the market still a bit nervy about future Fed hikes, and the upcoming FOMC, the dollar is likely to see some upside even if we get what's expected as that will maintain the status quo. The unemployment rate is expected in unchanged at 4.9%, wages m/m at 0.2% vs 0.5% prior, y/y unchanged at 2.5%. I should think even a mild miss won't do any real damage to the dollar and will quickly reverse. If we beat the forecasts across the board then the Fed hike mob will grab the bulls by the horns.
We'll need to see payrolls around 150k or less and wages down to really shake the buck and get the bears involved.
Good luck if you're trading it and happy hunting. I'll have some levels to watch up shortly and don't forget the bumper prizes on offer in out NFP compo
