Final poll from the New York Times/Siena College
The NYT just released a poll of North Carolina, which is a state Trump needs to win. It has him down 48-45% compared to 46-42% in a poll taken Oct 9-13. Trump won 50-46% in 2016 against Clinton.
I know there's a strong belief out there that Trump is going to outperform his polls like he did last time but I think there's a good chance it's the opposite.
For one, the NYT has been splashing these polls all over its paper and investing heavily in them. It's one thing to get it wrong once, but to do it again in such dramatic fashion would be a blight on their reputation.
These results also come with conservative assumptions, something NYT pollwatcher Nate Cohn hints at:
In addition, the virus is hitting the state again with hospitalizations currently at their second-highest level since the start of the pandemic.
North Carolina is also a key Senate race and they have Cal Cunningham, the Democrat, maintaining a 46-43% edge over incumbent Senator Thom Tillis.
60% of voters in the state have already cast ballots.
Justin today wrote about the possibility that the election is a big surprise. It's a good read.
