Hardly a tick lower today
The euro has touched a new high on the day at 1.1874 in the fifth straight day of gains.
The intraday price action today is impressive and might underscore position squaring ahead of non-farm payrolls. Selling the euro has been a popular trade and shorts face the double risk of a weak non-farm payrolls report and taper signals from the ECB.
On the economic side, US data has been consistently missing the mark while European numbers have positively surprised.
Further, bund-Treasury spreads have narrowed this week, though both are quiet today.
Technically, it's been a n impressive move but will soon run into the late-July highs. A weak US jobs report would be a catalyst for a break higher but I think you have to wait for it rather than trying to front-run because with the euro up at these levels, risks are undoubtedly two-sided.
