US trade figures are due out tomorrow and should show a drop back below $60 bln after a spike in July. Why so high ($62 bln) in July? $147 crude oil. Oil prices fell in August and the economy weakened as well, so look for the deficit to narrow, and to narrow further as the year progresses.
One deficit, the fiscal deficit, is rising like a balloon, but the trade gap should shrink considerably for the rest of 2008, at a minimum. The last US trade surplus? The early 1990s, during the last meaningful economic downturn.
