ANZ Business Outlook Survey for February is the first for 2018. There is no survey conducted in January while the country is on holiday, down the beach, BBQing out the front of a bach. How's that for positive sentiment?!

Activity Outlook comes in at an improved 20.4

  • prior 15.6

Business Confidence also improved (but still a net negative) at -19.0

  • prior (December) was -37.8 while November was the lowest since March of 2009 at -39.3

Says ANZ:

  • Headline business confidence has traversed the dip. A net 19% of businesses are pessimistic about the year ahead, versus 38% in December.
  • All five sectors improved this month with retail firms the closest to a positive outlook at -4%. Firms' views of their own activity (which has the stronger correlation with GDP growth), lifted from +16 to +20.
  • It's hardly a gold medal performance, given the historical average is +28, but it is no longer skating on thin ice.

ANZ ... more:

  • slower housing market
  • small dip in net migration
  • credit constraints
  • surging construction & tourism sectors (capacity constraints evident)

are combining to make an acceleration in GDP growth "hard work from here".

The bank says their Composite growth indicator is pointing towards growth of 2-3%, and adds they see risks to downside for Reserve Bank's and Treasury's GDP forecasts

As part of this survey the bank asks for inflation expectations

  • 2.07% this survey from 2.25% prior


NZD has edged a few tics lower


ANZ's Business Outlook Survey is a monthly survey of around 1,500 businesses NZ-wide