NZ job report is once a quarter, today's is for octo October to December 2018

  • Unemployment rate: expected is 4.1%, prior was 3.9%
  • Employment change q/q: expected 0.3%, prior was 1.1%
  • Employment change y/y: expected 2.6%, prior was 2.8%
  • Participation rate: expected 71.1%, prior was 71.1%
  • Average hourly earnings: expected 0.8%, prior was 1.4%
  • Private wages including overtime: expected 0.6%, prior was 0.5%
  • Private wages excluding overtime: expected 0.6%, prior was 0.5%

Coming up real soon, at 2145GMT

This quickie (in summary) via ASB:

  • We expect some modest payback from the strong Q3 HLFS labour prints, which saw employment growth firm and labour utilisation approach decade highs.
  • However, the labour market is expected to remain tight, with the RBNZ meeting its PTA objectives in terms of "supporting maximum sustainable employment within the economy".
  • Wage growth is expected to remain moderate and distributional measures should still depict a contained wage inflation backdrop.
  • Our expectation is that the labour market will tighten over 2019, which will see pressures on core inflation firm, with the OCR set to move up from August 2020. However, the probability of an OCR cut is non-negligible, particularly if economic momentum remains subpar and wage growth fails to fire.