A real quick snippet from ANZ on their fair value model for the New Zealand and Australian dollars

  • ANZ have fair value for the NZD at 063
  • And for AUD at 0.70

ANZ outlooks for both are 'mildly bullish' for this week and bearish for the month ahead.

AUD has been short on luck

  • We have now broken support. How low the AUD falls will be defined by how aggressively the RBA eases and the success of Chinese stimulus efforts.

NZD

  • is expected to trade in line with risk sentiment
  • little in the domestic story to justify recent strength
  • a challenging global story over the medium term, we still think conditions are in place for the NZD to fall below fair value in 2019