For the Reserve Bank of New Zealand September 2018 policy announcement;
And, via Westpac:
This now from ASB, in summary:
- RBNZ's outlook for interest rates remained identical to the August Monetary Policy Statement's
- We continue to expect the RBNZ will keep the OCR on hold, and eventually lift the OCR in early 2020
risks through to mid-2019 are tilted to a lower OCR due to low levels of business confidence
- RBNZ showed a slightly greater degree of caution about the path forward:
- continued wariness over the domestic growth outlook
- also noting trade tensions more prominently
ASB outlook:
- We remain of the view that inflation pressures will pick up sooner than what the RBNZ has been forecasting to date
- we expect a greater degree of wage inflation and subsequent flow-through to consumer prices
- we expect that eventual OCR increases will occur sooner than the late-2020 indication from the RBNZ
- near-term risks are still skewed towards a lower OCR, primarily if growth does not live up to RBNZ expectations
