Via KiwiBank from a morning note, this in a very brief summary:
- the risk of further Kiwi gains is mounting
- Technically both Kiwi and many of the Kiwi crosses have run pretty hard to the upside, and thus it wouldn't be too surprising to see some pull backs from a momentum perspective. It's these pullbacks that exporters should now be looking to take advantage off.
- Whilst the risk of negative rates is not completely off the table, the softening of tone from the RBNZ, which now sees a previously heavily negative priced OIS curve back in positive territory, has removed tail risk of NZDUSD back below 65 cents in near term - particularly in the current nobody wants US Dollars environment.
For the week ahead
- Kiwi to be supported at the previous multi-month highs around the 68-cent mark with upside attempts running into resistance around 0.6950.
