NZD traders - New Zealand inflation data due Wednesday - CPI preview

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

Inflation data from NZ for the first quarter (January - March) of 2019 is on Wednesday 17 April 2019, local. 

  • in GMT time 2245GMT on 16 April

  • expected 0.3% q/q, prior 0.1%
  • expected 1.7% y/y, prior 1.9%
Earlier preview, here

Via BNZ (from a long and detailed piece, the major points)
  • We are certainly of the view that CPI inflation will be stronger this year than the Reserve Bank forecast in its February MPS. 
  • Over recent months our CPI inflation forecasts have only strengthened. 
  • on Wednesday, with the publication of the March quarter CPI report. For this we expect quarterly inflation of 0.4%. This would set the annual inflation rate at 1.8%, from 1.9% in Q4. 
  • We would argue that CPI inflation is comfortably ensconced close to the middle of the 1.0 to 3.0% target band, bolstered by the range of core inflation estimates, along with various business survey pointers. And that even if CPI inflation was to keep running a bit below 2.0%, this wouldn't be any sign of a sub-optimal economy. Nor is it something the central bank can reasonably expect to influence with any precision (without exacerbating imbalances in many other, important, aspects of the economy and financial system). But that's just our view. We appreciate that the new OCR committee might not see it this way. In which case it might be tempted to reduce the cash rate anyway, on the assumption, say, that the forward growth indicators will only undermine CPI inflation getting and/or remaining at 2.0% per annum.
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