New Zealand Q2 GDP is due Thursday morning NZ time
April to June, second quarter, economic growth
- expected 0.7% q/q, prior 0.5%
- expected 2.5% y/y, prior 2.7%
Earlier previews can be found here:
This one via Westpac:
- After a few quarters of patchy, subdued growth, the stars seem to have aligned for the New Zealand economy during the June quarter. Recent activity indicators have shown growth ranging from modest to strong across a wide range of sectors. We expect a 0.9% rise in GDP for the quarter.
- In part, our forecast reflects some big one-off gains in particular services sectors that are unlikely to be repeated. However, there are also some temporary negatives. Shutdowns in fuel and methanol production will subtract around 0.2% from Q2 growth, but will boost Q3 growth by the same amount.
- The Q2 result could have an important bearing on the Reserve Bank's thinking, given its low expectation of 0.5% growth and its recent comments that it is nearing the trigger point for OCR cuts
- NZ GDP data will be released on Thursday morning, with the RBNZ having pencilled in +0.5% q/q for Q2 GDP growth at the time of the August Monetary Policy Statement. However, it looks like growth will come in stronger than that. Consensus is looking for +0.8% q/q, in part on the back of strong retail figures and solid growth in construction in the quarter. This would leave year-ended GDP growth at around 2.5%.