Oil finds a bid but the narrow range continues

Author: Adam Button | Category: News

Inside day for oil

Inside day for oil
It's tough to halt a falling technical 'knife' like the huge outside bearish candle like we saw a week ago as the US and Iran verged on the brink of war.

Yet in the past three days it's flattened out despite a bearish inventory report. The push and pull around supply and global growth is the day-to-day dynamic.

Beneath the surface, the more-interesting developments are in US shale. The market has turned against the sector because of the inability of companies to generate free cash flow and because of massive oversupply in US natural gas, especially in the gulf region.

What it means is that US production growth could falter, if not reverse sooner than expected. Lenders are tired of companies pushing out profitability targets and drilling for the sake of drilling. There's also a very high risk around the US election and regulation of things like flaring, which could prove costly and further slow production.

The problems could be hastened and dramatically magnified on a fall below $50.

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