This via Société Générale on oil prices
Brent and WTI prices have gained ... The main driver has been:
- geopolitics
- followed by investor flows
- and fundamentals
In summary (bolding mine):
- Many in the oil markets assume that oil sanctions will snap back on Iran on 12 May; this is SG's view (70% probability).
- There are also serious concerns about continued steep production declines in Venezuela, and the possibility of oil sanctions after the elections on 20 May.
- With General Haftar in poor health and leaving Libya, instability in the country could increase dramatically, and large and sustained outages of crude output could again become the norm there.
- Tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran in Yemen, and between Israel and Iran in Syria, also remain extremely high.
In our view, this potent mix of geopolitical risks has been the main driver behind the upward move in oil prices in the last two weeks.
