Crude down 1.2%

Crude down 1.2%

WTI crude finished the day down 53-cents to $40.92. It's the second day of moderate losses following two days of big gains.

Oil has cheered the better mood in markets and vaccine potential. After falling to $33.64 intraday on Nov 2, it rose as much as 28%.

The problem for crude is the coronavirus. Restrictions in Europe are dampening demand and rising cases elsewhere threaten to do further damage. On the flipside is OPEC+, which is now expect to prolong curbs for 3 or 6 months at the meeting in early December.

I think a great trade is setting up in oil because the lack of investment is going to leave a big supply deficit in the years ahead. But I think we get one more flush lower first.

In the short term, look to $40 for support.