Oil swings higher, bullish Goldman Sachs call gets heavy play
Goldman sees brent hitting $75 this year
It's been awhile since I've seen a commodity call get as much attention as the bullish call from Goldman Sachs last night.
They see brent hitting $70 in Q2 and $75 in Q3, both $10 hikes.
"Faster re-balancing during what was expected to be the dark days of winter will be followed by a widening deficit this spring as the ramp-up in OPEC+ production lags our above-consensus demand recovery forecast. While we believe that OPEC+, Iran and shale supplies can materially increase through 2H21, all these are likely to remain highly inelastic in the coming months to even higher oil prices. In particular, the recovery of Iranian exports is likely to take months and would further be accommodated within our assumed aggressive ramp-up in OPEC+ output this summer. This increases our conviction in a tight oil market this summer, when we expected OECD inventories to normalize."We now forecast that oil prices will rally sooner and higher, driven by lower expected inventories and higher marginal costs -- at least in the short run -- to restart upstream activity. We further believe that this additional rally will be supported by the current repositioning for a reflationary environment with investors turning to oil, buying a lagging real asset that benefits from a stimulus-driven recovery and has demonstrated an unmatched ability to hedge against inflation shocks."
WTI is up $1.19 to $60.45 today. It slumped to $58.82 on Friday but the talk of reflation/inflation is everywhere at the moment and commodities sizzled last week, led by the 16% rally in copper (and another 1.3% today).