A bus full of Fed speakers couldn't do what an oil non-deal full of holes could
Yellen, Evans, Kashkari, George, Harker and Mester (did I miss anyone) have all been chatting, and Evan's and Harker aside, all had remotely hawkish comments. Despite that the oil news has trumped nearly all of it as oil currencies enjoyed basking in the sun of probably the most flaky, unrealistic oil deal ever not done. I can't even begin to pick out the holes in it. But there you go, we've seen markets move on much crazier things than this.
Whatever the news and how it came the price of USDJPY is what it is and all we can do is trade what we see.
Right now I just see a move that hasn't changed the trend, that's struggling already to hit recent highs, and has nothing much coming to change that.
USDJPY H4 chart
The chart is pretty clear about what needs to be done and a move above 102 is needed to potentially break this recent bearish trend. Support around 101.25/30 looks important right now and a swift break of there is likely to see 101 tested not long after.
And just in case you didn't have enough influences affecting this pair (and others), it's also month and quarter end, so that throws those flows in the mix too. As usual, keep one eye on the London fix later, as that's where we may see some increased choppiness.
