The latest forecast from OPEC

  • Lowers 2021 world oil demand forecast by 160k bpd (to 5.65m)
  • Lowers Q4 demand forecast by 330K to 99.49mbpd
  • Keeps 2022 demand forecast unchanged
  • Raises forecast for 2022 US tight oil output growth to 610K from 410k bpd
  • Keeps total 2022 non-OPEC supply growth unchanged

These are marginal changes but it's interesting that Q4 demand is lower even with at least 500k bpd of switching to oil from gas. One of the reasons for lower demand in Q4 is higher prices.