Pelosi pushes her luck on stimulus but appears to have a winning hand
The market sees Pelosi winning
I wrote about this yesterday and the market is coming around to it: Pelosi has a winning hand and she knows it.
Republicans have tried to pare back emergency unemployment benefits but House leader Pelosi is standing her ground. Initially, it looked like she would have to compromise but she has calculated that the public will blame the President and Republicans if benefits aren't extended; she also doesn't want them to risk running out in the lame-duck session after the election, when the Republican Senate could rediscover fiscal discipline.
The latest from Politico is that Republicans have offered $400/week and been rejected. They're also offering an eviction moratorium through Dec 15 and $150B-$200B in state and local money. There was already agreement on another round of $1200 checks.
In a telling sign of how much leverage they believe they have, Democrats have added in things like mail-in balloting to discussions.
A big hangup appears to be funding pensions, education, childcare, foodstamps.
At the end of discussions, Mark Meadows said, "We are making little progress. There is still the $3.4 trillion donkey or elephant in the room. There will be no number anywhere close." Pelosi replied: "It's a beautiful swan."
The risk here is that Pelosi (and the market) have miscalculated.