An article on Bloomberg citing a Gallup poll shows Americans are losing confidence the US will avoid the Fiscal Cliff. Its a close call, but the trend is clear:
- 50% saying it was likely, 48% saying it was unlikely that the two sides will avoid the fiscal cliff
- A week earlier, (survey taken Dec. 15-16) the numbers were 57% expected a deal, 40% didn’t.
Americans Losing Confidence on Obama-Congress Budget Deal
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The latest political pundit consensus is a deal will be reached on, or just prior to, Dec. 31 (Monday). What’s likely in the deal:
- temporarily raise the debt limit
- extend Bush-era tax relief for those earning less than $400,000
- Extend the payroll tax relief
- extend unemployment benefits
Its going to be a close-run thing. If a deal is not reached by Dec. 31 then most likely will be a US stockmarket slide. Further delays to a deal are going to negatively impact the GDP outlook for 2013 as the austerity implied in a ‘no deal’ or ‘delayed deal’ outcome starts to bite.
