According to Reuters' latest poll on economists
- Most expect the BOJ to scale back on stimulus measures, not add to them
- But likely not to come until 2020 or later
- Forecasts core CPI to rise to 0.9% in current fiscal year (to March 2019)
- Forecasts core CPI to remain the same for the following fiscal year (to March 2020)
- Expected sales tax hike is seen as hurting the economy, will push GDP lower
Also in the poll, economists were asked to rate prime minister Abe's economic accomplishments on a scale of 0 to 100. Abe scored 58 points, with most economists handing him a score between 50 to 70 points.
As for the BOJ forecasts, definitely not anything new as the central bank is still very much expected to stay pat as long as inflation remains way off their target. Of note, it will be interesting to see how the BOJ and government weathers the proposed sales tax hike. They would definitely have learnt from the 2014 incident so if they're pushing through with this then they'd better be sure that the economy can handle it.
Otherwise, we'll see Japanese growth contract once again - prompting fears of another technical recession.
