A preview of the Australian Q1 CPI data from Goldman Sachs, Barclays, Westpac and UBS
This from the good guys over at eFX (check them out!)
Goldman: GS 1.10% (-0.10% qoq), consensus 1.30% (0.20% qoq), previous 1.70% (0.20% qoq)
Barclays: Australian CPI inflation should print near zero given the big drop in petrol prices in Q1 - we and consensus expect a 0.1% q/q gain in the Australian CPI. The energy drag on CPI may prove a temporary effect, as petrol prices have rebounded in Q2 to date. For underlying inflation in Australia, we expect 0.6% increases in the weighted median and trimmed mean CPIs, broadly in line with the consensus forecast, and a 0.8% rise in the ex-volatile items CPI. Averaging these would see annual inflation unchanged at a rounded 2.25%, in line with the RBA's forecast profile and what we regard as no impediment to a likely May rate cut.
Wesptac: Westpac is forecasting a meek 0.1%qtr rise (1.2%yr) in the headline CPI in the March quarter. The key factors for the very low headline CPI print are: the collapse in petrol prices through late Q4 and early Q1, falling fruit & vegetable prices and the usual post-Christmas discounting.
UBS: We forecast headline CPI to remain subdued at 0.1% q/q (after 0.2%). Meanwhile, key underlying inflation should slow to 0.5% q/q.
