US durable goods order preview for July 27, 2015:
The main market mover to start the week ahead will be the US report on durable goods orders at 8:30 am ET on Monday (1230 GMT).
Here's is what's expected:
- Durable goods orders +4.0% on a rise in Boeing orders
- Ex-transport +1.0%
- Non-defense capital goods orders ex-aircraft (core orders) +1.0%
Core orders are where the focus lies. This series has flashed dismal signals about the economy for the past year and the latest factory orders report included downward revisions.
Durable goods orders
This report is the final top-tier indicator before the Fed decision on Wednesday.
On core orders, Deutsche Bank notes:
"As of May, core orders were down over 6% annualized relative to their Q1 average, and they have declined in four out of the past five months. This is likely due to a combination of declining exports and a plunge in energy-related capital expenditures. To be sure, the durables data are notoriously volatile and subject to substantial revisions. Our best guess is that core orders will rebound modestly in June given the recent stabilization in the manufacturing ISM-new orders averaged 55.1 in Q2, up from 52.1 in the prior quarter," they report.
