A preview of the Japanese preliminary Q3 GDP data due on Monday 17 November 2014. There is a great deal of focus on this data as the Japanese government will be heeding it when making the decision on the next sales tax hike.

Or, so they say.

News flow this week has very strongly indicated that the decision has basically been made to delay the next sales tax hike until April 2017, and even that there will be a snap election called for December 2014.

This data is scheduled for release by Japan’s Cabinet Office at 8.50am on Monday morning, 17 November 2014 in Tokyo, which is 2350GMT on 16 November.

In Q2 (the previous release), the annualized GDP came in at -7.1% … a dreadful result for Abenomics which has been attributed to the April 1 (2014) sales tax hike.

  • The consensus median estimate for this Q3 data from the Bloomberg survey is an annualized +2.2% q/q.
  • Note also, the consensus median estimate from the Reuters survey is +2.1% q/q.
  • Private consumption (makes up around 60% of the economy) is expected at +0.8% (Bloomberg survey) in Q3 (was -5.1% in Q2)
  • Capital expenditure is expected +0.9% (Bloomberg survey) (-5.1% in Q2)