The hype machine is all about non-farm payrolls but it’s not the most important report at the moment.
The market is obsessed with economic data ripping back in the Spring (or maybe was obsessed is a better description after the rout in stocks). The Spring comeback is all about the consumer and on Monday we get the best barometer of how the consumer is doing.
Last week, the S&P 50o hit a record after autosales numbers beat expectations for March but since then the data has been much less impressive. The ISM non-manufacturing survey was a touch soft and fear has been the trade ever since.
The key number to watch is retail sales excluding autos, gas and buildings supplies. It’s also known as the control group.
Retail sales ex autos gas and building supplies
The consensus is for a 0.5% rise and I suspect it will need to rise at 0.7% to start undoing the damage from this week.
