Coming up at 0200GMT, activity data fro October

  • Industrial Production y/y expected is 5.8%, prior was 5.8%
  • industrial production YTD y/y expected is 6.3%, prior was 6.4%
  • Fixed Assets (excluding rural) YTD y/y, expected is 5.5%, prior was 5.4%
  • Retail Sales y/y, expected is 9.2%, prior was 9.2%
  • Retail Sales YTD y/y, expected is 9.3%, prior was 9.3%

previews

HSBC:

  • We forecast industrial production growth at 5.9% y-o-y in October.
  • The latest PMI readings point to modest growth in manufacturing output amid trade tensions and domestic de-leveraging.

Barclays:

  • We expect industrial production growth stayed below 6% y/y in October given the weaker NBS manufacturing PMI.
  • We forecast fixed asset investment growth of 5.5% y/y ytd in October, up from 5.4% previously, with a mild recovery in infrastructure investment partially offset by moderating real estate investment.
  • Growth in retail sales is likely to remain broadly flat 9.2%

Nomura:

  • We expect industrial production growth to remain unchanged from September, at 5.8% y-o-y in October, despite its recent downtrend, partially because this October has one more working day than last October.
  • Retail sales growth will likely slow in October on weaker domestic demand. Although we expect a further slowdown in property investment, September's investment data suggest that infrastructure investment may have reached its nadir (its year-on-year growth rate rose to -2.0% in September from - 5.9%) and manufacturing investment remained robust (16.3% y-o-y in September); these factors likely offset the weakness in property investment. We expect year-to-date fixed asset investment growth to remain stable after an uptick in September, as the policy easing seems to be starting to have an effect."