The data highlight of the morning brings us the preliminary reading for the UK 's Q2 GDP
The final qq Q1 release came in at +0.4% with yy at 2.9% which Ryan covered here, and today's forecasts predict an increase in qq to +0.7% but slower yy at 2.6%
The key services sector dragged down the Q1 reading with a sluggish start in January despite a more positive tone in Feb and March.
So what do we think of today's release? Well recent data has been unconvincing, especially on the mftg output front, but BOE gov Carney and the MPC seem to think there's enough to be cheery about on the wages front to start talking rate hikes at the turn of the year
I'm not yet convinced that there are enough reasons to be cheerful, or indeed it being wise to jack up rates anytime soon but the BOE and Fed seem to have itchy trigger syndrome, if only to try and justify their longer term forecasts that have yet to materialize
First GDP readings always lend themselves to further revisions so today's data should be taken at face value, but suffice to say this market is hungry for a feed at the trough and rationalization will give way initially to knee-jerk reaction
For what it's worth I say the +0.7% qq estimate is largely factored in so I remain a rally seller should we get something better. Don't be surprised if we get an initial figure softer than expected with upward revisions in due course. Anything in the median range of +0.6% to +0.8% should have limited impact.
GBPUSD currently 1.5545 on a slide lower as I type. Offers/res seen between 1.5580-1.5600 with support 1.5485-1.5500
EURGBP currently 0.7112 holding on to 0.7100 support/bids so far this morning. More support/bids below at 0.7080 and 0.7060-65 with offers into 0.7130 and 0.7150
As always though, try not to pre-empt too hard. You don't need crystal balls, just the ability to gauge the price action after the event. Unless coin-flips are your main trading tool, that and inspired guess work
Either way there should be good opportunity for bulls and bears alike.
