The latest Reuters poll shows that economists expect the RBA to keep its cash rate steady at 1% on 6 August
- 39/40 economists expect the RBA to hold cash rate steady at 1.00% next month
- 25/40 economists see cash rate at 0.75% by year-end
- 13/40 economists see cash rate at 1.00% by year-end
- 2/40 economists (Standard Chartered and Goldman Sachs) see cash rate at 0.50% by year-end
This very much goes in-line with expectations laid out after the central bank's last meeting at the start of this month. The decision came with a subtle shift in forward guidance, with the RBA saying they will only adjust policy again 'if needed'.
So far, there isn't much material deterioration in the domestic and global outlook so that should allow the RBA some room to hold the cash rate at current levels for the time being. Despite that, Australian cash rate futures still have a 25 bps rate cut priced in by about ~16% for the central bank's 6 August meeting.
