Reserve Bank of Australia

Quick summary headlines via Reuters

  • risks in the household sector have increased, consumption outlook uncertain
  • housing risks managable so far; Sydney, Melbourne prices still 30-40 pct higher than in 2012
  • most home owners not in negative equity, would take further substantial price falls
  • around 2.75 pct of securitised home loans are in negative equity, mostly in WA
  • household debt levels remain high, arrears have risen from very low levels
  • risks from housing would increase should unemployment rise
  • risk that coming large supply of new apartments will pressure prices
  • household financial stress generally low, well placed to service their debts
  • more rigorous bank lending standards has improved quality of new loans
  • Australian financial system more resilient, banks have higher, more liquid capital
  • in stress tests banks can weather double-digit unemployment, house price falls over 30 pct
  • banks may have to further raise capital ratios to meet apra, rbnz standards
  • more needs to be done by banks to limit misconduct after royal commission
  • sees vulnerabilities in key trading partners, global financial system
  • global growth has moderated, risks of a sharper downturn

Is it just me or do the risks seem to be building?

Yeah, its all under control right now … but wow, the RBA ticking off quite a few risks here. That last one … that is what could further advance the other risks outlined.

AUD down a few tics

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