Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe speech: topic is Recent Trends in Inflation
- a Q&A will follow
Headlines via Reuters
- latest data, forecasts do not warrant a rate rise in 2022
- economy, inflation would have to turn out very differently for the board to consider a hike next year
- says still plausible first increase in the cash rate will not be before 2024
- could be a case for hike before 2024 if inflation rises faster than expected
- underlying inflation at 2.5% mid-point would not warrant a rate rise
- need to see underlying inflation well within 2-3% range and confident it will stay there
- a sharp rise in underlying inflation would have different policy implications to a slow drift up
- inflation pressures in Australia are more muted than globally
- says yet to see a broad-based pick-up in wages growth in Australia
- our business liaison suggests most retain a strong cost control mindset
- energy prices in Australia trending lower due to wind, solar capacity
- likely global inflation pressures will moderate over next 18 months as demand/supply adjusts
Lowe has been a little more specific with these comments in terms of requirements for a rate hike, bolded above. So, inflation sustainably above 2.5% would seem to increase the chance of a hike. Similarly, a sharp rise instead of a slow one would increase the chance.
Full text is here:
Earlier today we got the RBA November meeting minutes:
