A note from RBC, this an extract with quick views on where to for those four centeal banks above
Following the December Fed meeting, our US colleagues cut their 2019 Fed forecasts from four hikes to two
- Fed's hike cycle ending a year earlier in Q2 2019
- While we expect US to continue growing at almost 3% in 2019, the more dovish signals emanating from Powell's post-meeting press conference indicate that the Fed is unlikely to continue hiking much further even if the real economy largely maintains its momentum
UK team now expect the BoE to hike only once in 2019 rather than twice
- hamstrung by ongoing Brexit uncertainty and a loss of economic momentum
currently anticipate a pause in the BoC cycle later this year
We have also placed our RBA profile on review
- Looking forward, the RBA likely remains on hold until further notice, but downside risks to our base case of 50bp in tightening beginning Q4 2019 are growing
- We await further direction from the first RBA meeting of the year (Feb 5) and the subsequent Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy before a possible reassessment. Labour data on Jan 24 and CPI on the Jan 30 will also be key
