RBNZ decision is either a 25 bps cut with a dovish bias or 50 bps

Only one of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg is forecasting a 50 bps cut but there's plenty of chatter about lower rates.

The easiest way to drown out all the noise is focus on where we'll be at year end. The current rate is 3.25% and the balance of probabilities implies 2.75%. But with a cut and very dovish commentary, that would be virtually-guaranteed with probabilities skewing lower and weighing on the kiwi.

Of course, an even easier way to look at it is a glance at the NZD/USD daily chart. It's almost comically from the upper left to the lower right.

That's a tough trend to fight but if Wheeler isn't super-dovish today, then you might circle a 38.2% retracement at 0.6967 as a target.

More on the RBNZ:

  • Forex technical analysis: NZDUSD falls before RBNZ decision later
  • RBNZ shadow board warns against cutting rates too hard
  • ANZ: RBNZ will cut tomorrow, may remove "unjustified", "unsustainable" comments on NZD
  • Preview of the RBNZ monetary policy decision due 9am NZ time, 5pm ET
  • Barclays says RBNZ to cut in July, September and again in December
  • RBNZ preview: Decision is whether to cut 25 or 50 basis points