RBNZ survey of inflation expectations - will low inflation skew risks toward an RBNZ cut?

Q1 New Zealand RBNZ Inflation Expectations for 2 years ahead is due out of NZ tomorrow (Tuesday NZ time)

• Due at 0200GMT on 24 February
• prior was +2.06%

According to Westpac;

• Persistently low inflation outturns in recent times have taken a toll on inflation expectations, which fell to their equal-lowest in 15 years in Q4 last year
• Another surprisingly low inflation print in Q1 suggests that expectations will nudge lower again this quarter
• The other notable development since the last survey is a sharp fall in fuel prices. The RBNZ noted in a recent speech that it will be exploring the impact on households' inflation expectations in the March Monetary Policy Statement.
• Our research suggests that current fuel prices do have an impact on expectations, but not a disproportionate one - that is, both professionals and households more or less correctly anticipate the impact that fuel prices will have on the current quarter CPI.

The RBNZ is very much firmly on hold for the time being.