Just a reminder on the potential make-or-break event in EU politics this week

von der leyen

The vote in Strasbourg tomorrow will take place at 1800 local time (1600 GMT), so be sure to keep your eyes and ears peeled just in case of any upsets. Von der Leyen needs to secure an absolute majority i.e. 374 out of 747 votes to be confirmed as European Commission president, under the bloc's current rules.

On paper, she should have just enough to get by - with her own team projecting more than 400 votes - but she could face some stumbling blocks from centre-left lawmakers. Von der Leyen herself is a centre-right candidate so appealing to the social democrats has been her challenge for the last few weeks.

One of the things that is working in her favour is that some socialist factions will back her in the vote, particularly Spain as they have a vested interest with Josep Borrell set to be appointed as EU foreign policy chief under the current package.

However, the vote tomorrow will be via secret ballot and that always has the potential to upset the establishment. As mentioned two weeks back, we had to see David Sassoli's appointment as European Parliament president go to two rounds of voting already - because the first round failed to achieve a majority - so it is clear that there are some disapproval among the ranks. Thus, let's see what happens tomorrow.