(Reuters poll) Australian GDP is expected to grow just 0.1% in Q3, slashed from 0.9%
July to September economic growth is expected at +0.1% q/q (+0.9% was the forecast in the April poll)
- range for the forecasts was -0.6% up +0.8%
- "Sydney's lockdown could see Q3 GDP growth turn negative if the lockdown goes for six to eight weeks," said Tapas Strickland, an economist at National Australia Bank. "A worst-case protracted lockdown...means a possible hit of $4.2-5.6 billion on GDP. Such a hit is probably enough to see Q3 GDP growth dip temporarily into negative, with the drag approaching 1 percentage point off activity and producing a Q3 GDP print of -0.1% to -0.2%."
- When asked what was the biggest risk to the economy this year, 10 of 14 economists said a slow vaccination rate. The remaining four flagged a spread of new COVID-19 variants.
I've been posting in recent days on the downgrades in expectations for Q3 growth due to rolling and extended lockdown for much of the country (currently 50% of Australia's population is back in lockdown) and the likely implications for RBA policy:
- HSBC expect Australia's economy to stall
- Goldman Sachs slashes its Australian Q3 GDP forecast nearly in half - citing Sydney coronavirus lockdown
- Westpac says the RBA might increase its QE bond-buying, not taper
- WSJ opinion piece says the RBA is likely to put its QE taper on hold due to Sydney lockdown set to extend
- Goldman Sachs says RBA tapering of QE bond-buying to be delayed until November