Reuters poll: BOC to raise rate to 2% in Q2. 2.25% in Q4

2nd hike pushed out to 4Q from 3Q previously

A Reuters poll, is projecting that the Bank of Canada will raise rates to 2% in the 2nd quarter. That is the same path from the Jan 4 poll. What is different is the poll now shows a 2nd hike will occur in the 4Q vs the 3Q previously.

Growth forecasts were slashed.

• 4Q 1.6% vs 2.2% in October
• 1.3% in Q1 vs 2.0% in October

Confidence in `Canada rate hike path in 2019 has decreased as per 15 of 24 economists.

The USDCAD is trading higher today, helped in part by the lower oil prices.

Looking at the hourly chart below, the technicals are tilting more to the upside after the move above the 100 and 200 hour MA earlier today. The price has not been above those moving averages since January 3rd.

In other Canada news, they will postpone trade data indefinitely on US government shutdown.