The odds are as good as a coin flip at this stage
If you're trying to guess how are risk trades going to react today, this is arguably one of the trickier times to be treading water in the market.
The S&P 500 fell by 3% on back-to-back days with risk experiencing a major rout to start the week. Although virus fears are still persisting, just remember that when things move too far and too fast in the market, there is always room for some pause/pullback.
That may be the case with risk trades today after the meltdown in the past two days.
This is not to say that the fears are unjustified or that the meltdown is over, but when the market moves are this big and this quick, investors may see some potential for a pause and profit-taking activity.
All that said, coronavirus developments aren't really getting much better outside of China so that is still something to be wary about in case the market continues to ride on that to drive risk trades lower again later today.
US futures may be sitting higher so far today - E-minis up by 0.4% - but we have seen this story before already this week and it did not end well:
