Saudi's oil minister expects OPEC to reach an agreement in next week's meeting

Comments by Saudi Arabia's oil minister Al-Falih in Russia

• Sees a 'moderate and reasonable' OPEC agreement being reached
• Expects OPEC agreement to satisfy the oil market
• Doesn't expect disputes with Iran and Venezuela
• Heard a proposal to increase oil output by 1.8 mil bpd from different sources
• It is inevitable that agreement will be a gradual increase of oil output

All eyes will be set on Vienna next week, as OPEC and non-OPEC members meet in order to find some common ground with regards to the easing of oil output cuts. Expect more rhetoric on the issue to come about over the next few days.

There's so many variations of how much oil output is to be increased from what we've seen in reports over the past few weeks. From 500k to now 1.8 mil bpd increases, it's just staggering. The numbers feel like they're plucked from thin air.

If anything, I believe the market will head into the meeting with expectations of around 1 mil bpd increase in oil output to come from the new agreement. But surely, the market is expecting some form of increase regardless of the amount - but the reaction after will depend on the scale and conditions (one-off or stage-by-stage).