There is no easy way to explain the euro rally over the past two weeks. Certainly some sense of finality about Cyprus was at work but Japanese money flowing into European bonds (or people frontrunning that trade) have been the drivers.

Looking at the daily chart, the 100-day moving average has capped gains so far along with the 38.2% retracement of the Feb-March decline.

EURUSD daily chart april 12, 2013

There isn’t a strong bias on the chart but I lean toward the upside, if only because there hasn’t been a strong rejection at those technical levels.