- NFP expected +205K vs +227K prior
- High est. +250K, low est +175K
- Three-month average of 245K
- Est. +215K private
- Unemployment rate est. unchanged at 8.3%,
- Unemployment est range 8.4-8.1%
- ADP was 209K vs 230K prior
- ISM non employment component 56.7 vs 55.7 in Feb
- ISM manufacturing employment 56.1 vs 53.2 prior
- Challenger announced layoffs were 8.8% lower than Feb
- Initial jobless claims virtually equal to Feb
- Trim Tabs estimates 187K with daily income tax deposit data
Take your guess here and win a ForexLive t-shirt.
The risk, to me, is that we see an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate. No matter what the NFP print is, a rise in unemployment would catch the market off guard and put QE3 back on the table.
It seems to me that the fall from 9.1% unemployment in August to 8.3% now is more than the job gains would indicate. Short USD/JPY would be the most straightforward way to position for that but be wary of any trades because the market will be very thin tomorrow.
