The US jobs report is due to be released at 1230 GMT
- Prior +263K
- Median estimate +175K
- Highest estimate +228K
- Lowest estimate +80K
- Standard deviation 28.0K
- Unemployment rate estimate 3.6% (prior 3.6%)
- Participation rate estimate N/A (prior 62.8%)
- Average hourly earnings estimate +0.3% m/m (prior +0.2%)
- Average hourly earnings estimate +3.2% y/y (prior +3.2%)
- US employment statistics to be released tomorrow. What should you expect?
- Friday 7 June 2019 is NFP day - Goldman Sachs nonfarm payroll preview
- US nonfarm payroll due at 1230GMt Friday 07 June 2019 - preview
The hype coming into the report today isn't about how hot the US economy is running or how tight labour market conditions are at the moment. Instead, it'll be about "is there anything wrong with the US economy that will warrant a further shift in the Fed to err towards cutting interest rates?" in the release later.
Earlier in the week, we saw the ADP employment report show that US companies added the fewest jobs in nine years. Hence, there is increased scrutiny for any more hiccups in US labour market conditions and market participants will dig into this report in search of that.
As such, the headline estimate for non-farm payrolls may warrant some attention this time around but ultimately I reckon any massive miss will still be offset by a more steady unemployment rate and wages data; if it turns out that way.
In short, almost everything about the report today will require market participants to pay attention to. With inflationary pressures starting to show some weakness recently, it calls into question the Fed's inflation mandate so wages/average hourly earnings will also be an important data point to look out for in the release later.
Hence, there will be plenty for markets to digest later if the data points portray a mixed picture. Either way, expect markets to pay heightened attention to any potential problems in the report as the narrative of Fed rate cuts starts to make its way into the trading landscape.
