US stock market open 16 August 2016

  • S&P-8 pts to 2182
  • Dow -74pts to 18561
  • Nasdaq -24pts to 5238

US 10 year yields 1.56% flat

Before the data and Dudley, bonds yields were well down with 10's trading to a low of 1.51%. The data puts pressure on the Fed's price mandate and thus pressure on raising rates, while Dudley pumping hikes has eclipsed that. I don't think that's a sum that can last but the market obviously has other ideas.

To illustrate that further, FFR futures implied an 18% chance of a Sep hike yesterday (44.8% for Dec), and that's now 22% and 50.5% following the data and Dudders. Make of that what you will.