Survey Table: Analysts Forecast For BOE MPC Bank Rate

Author: Market News International | Category: News

LONDON (MNI), June 8 – The following table shows analysts’
forecasts for Bank Rate.

The median forecast is for the first hike to come in Q4, compared
to Q3 in Market News International’s May survey, and for Bank Rate to
end 2011 at 1.0% and 2012 at 1.75%.

Analysts attach a 25% median probability to an August hike, when
the next quarterly Inflation Report is published, and a 60% chance to a
November one.

Analysts as a whole are somewhat more hawkish than present market
expectations, with the Stering Overnight Index Average, showing a 45%
chance of a November hike.

!Level!Level!Level!Level!Level!Level!Level!Chance!Chance!
!Bank !Bank !Bank !Bank !Bank !Bank !Bank !Bank !Bank !
!Rate !Rate !Rate !Rate !Rate !Rate !Rate !Rate !Rate !
!End !End !End !End !End !End !End !Hike !Hike !
!Q2 !Q3 !Q4 !Q1 !Q2 !Q3 !Q4 !Aug !Nov !
!2011 !2011 !2011 !2012 !2012 !2012 !2012 !2011 !2011 !
!% !% !% !% !% !% !% !% !% !
————————————————————————
Median 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 25.0 60
Mean 0.50 0.57 0.76 1.02 1.24 1.48 1.73 27.7 55.7
High 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.50 1.75 2.25 2.50 60.0 80
Low 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 5.0 15
Prior Survey
Median 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 n/a n/a
————————————————————————
Number
Responses 40 39 38 33 30 27 30 16 18
————————————————————————
4Cast 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 20 40
ABN Amro 0.50 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Action Econ. 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 n/a n/a 1.75 n/a n/a
Aletti Gest. 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 n/a n/a n/a n/a
AIB 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.5 20 50
BarCap 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.5 n/a n/a
BoA-ML 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.0 55 70
BVCA 0.50 0.75 0.75 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.25 35 65
Capital Econ. 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.5 n/a n/a
Citi 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.8 n/a n/a
Commerzbank 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 15 60
Credit Agricole 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.5 n/a n/a
Daiwa 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.5 5 15
Deutsche 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 n/a n/a
Global Insight 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 2.0 30 60
HSBC 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.50 2.0 n/a n/a
ING 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 2.0 25 60
Intesa Sanpaolo 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.50 1.75 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Investec 0.50 0.50 0.75 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Item Club 0.50 0.50 0.60 0.80 1.10 1.30 1.6 n/a n/a
Jeffries 0.50 0.50 0.75 n/a n/a n/a 1.5 10 40
JP Morgan 0.50 0.50 0.75 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
L & G 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 0.75 1.00 1.5 n/a n/a
Lloyds 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.25 1.75 2.25 2.5 n/a n/a
Monument 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 n/a n/a 2.0 15 30
Morgan Stanley 0.50 0.75 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
NAB 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Nomura 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.0 n/a n/a
Oxford Econ. 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 n/a 60
RBC 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 n/a n/a
RBS 0.50 0.75 0.75 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.25 33 33
RIA 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 30 70
Schroders 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.25 1.50 1.75 60 80
SEB 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.75 2.0 10 70
Soc. Generale 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 55 70
Standard Ch. 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Standard Life 0.50 0.50 0.50 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Stone McCarthy 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.5 25 60
Sumitomo Mitsui 0.50 0.50 0.75 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 70
UBS 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.0 n/a n/a
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For more information contact UK editorial on 44-20-7862 7491 or e-mail:
drobinson@marketnews.com; wwilkes@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,M$$BE$,MABDT$]

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