LONDON (MNI), Aug 3 – Analysts have once again pushed back their
forecasts for the first hike in Bank Rate.

The median forecast in Market News’ survey ahead of the August Bank
of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting is for the first hike to
come in the second quarter of 2012. In the July survey the median
expectation was the first hike would come in Q1 next year and in the
June survey it was for Q4 of this year.

Bank Rate is now expected to end 2012 at just 1.25%. The median
expectation is for the already extremely prolonged policy pause to
continue, with no policy easing either.

The median probability of further quantitative easing has only
edged up from the July survey – to 27.5% from 25%.

Analysts are still a more hawkish than the markets – the implied
probability of a 25 basis point rate hike on ICAP SONIA does not rise
above 50% until the fourth quarter of 2012.

!Level ! Level !Level !Level !Level !Level ! !
!Bank ! Bank !Bank !Bank !Bank !Bank !Chance !
!Rate ! Rate !Rate !Rate !Rate !Rate !Of !
!End ! End !End !End !End !End !Further !
!Q3 ! Q4 !Q1 !Q2 !Q3 !Q4 !QE !
!2011 ! 2011 !2012 !2012 !2012 !2012 !% !
————————————————————————
Median 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 27.5
Mean 0.50 0.54 0.66 0.81 1.01 1.23 31.3
High 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.75 2.00 65.0
Low 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 10.0
————————————————————————
Number Responses 35 35 35 34 34 33 25
————————————————————————
4Cast 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 40
AIB 0.50 0.50 0.75 0.75 1.00 1.00 20
Barclays Capital 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.50 n/a
BNP Paribas 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 n/a
BoA-ML 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 28
Capital Economics 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 65
Citi 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 0.75 1.00 n/a
Commerzbank 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 35
Daiwa 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 40
Deutsche 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 25
Global Insight 0.50 0.50 0.50 n/a n/a 1.50 n/a
HSBC 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 n/a
ING 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 25
Investec 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 45
Jeffries 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 50
JP Morgan 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 30
Lloyds 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.75 2.00 20
Lombard 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 25
Monument 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 50
Morgan Stanley 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 n/a
Natixis 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 n/a n/a
NAB 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 20
Nomura 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 10
Oxford Economics 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 n/a
RBC 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 10
RBS 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 0.75 1.00 25
RIA 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 10
Schroders 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 20
Scotia Capital 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 35
SEB 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 0.75 0.75 60
Soc. Generale 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 n/a n/a
Standard Chartered 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 n/a
UBS 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 35
West LB 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.50 20
Westpac 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.50 1.50 40
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For more information contact UK editorial on 44-20-7862 7491 or e-mail:
drobinson@marketnews.com; wwilkes@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,M$$BE$,MABDA$]