We came close on Monday morning, but we need a sustained break of the 1.2950/75 area to shake the market from its complacent buy-the-dips attitude.

The market has spent the last several weeks paring back EUR/USD shorts and is now likely paring them further, assuming ranges will go on for ever. Nothing lasts for ever…

Look for a return of momentum sellers if we can close below 1.2950/75 tonight.