Two weeks ago we were all sitting here picking our noses. Now we’ve got possible war, Fed taper roulette, end of month flows, the US data lottery and funds exiting Asia as fast as the quickest boat can carry them.
The dollar is being bought against the pound and euro on Syria. USD/JPY is being sold on US economic worries and the bigger problem that the Syrian issue may turn into a USA v Russia fight. On top of that, the last thing the US economy, politicians and the people need right now is to be involved in another conflict. Oil and gold are also up on Syria. USD/CHF is up on god knows what as EUR/CHF falls as the safety crowd go scuttling for the ditches and tin hats. AUD is still looking economically challenged and is likely to be feeling some heat from emerging markets
Quite frankly it’s a mess and unless you have your strategy firmly in place it’s very difficult to trade. Our positions may get lucky catching a move in our favour on a headline but we’re more likely to be caught out on the wrong side of such moves.
When we get a flux of influences into the market you need to be aware of what trumps what and have all the cards in order.
The main emphasis across stocks and major currencies at the moment is down so if you are trading short term bear this in mind. You may rack up some pips trying to pick the bottom but the decent risk reward at the moment is from looking at shorts. Big Syrian headlines will likely wipe out any decent rises from good data. At the moment the market is becoming a scalpers dream.
For long term positions you may have to be prepared to wear any “headline” moves against you, particularly if you are long. If you are in a position that could be affected then it may pay to trim the position and book some profits. Even if you believe 100% in your strategy for a particular trade, there is nothing wrong with getting out until the dust settles. Conversely, if you’re looking to get in a fundamental trade then it may pay to let the news give you better entry levels.
Keep alert and on your toes. As much as any headlines can bust a position it can also give great opportunities to make some pips. Be flexible and ready to change tack should the news and markets dictate it.