By Isobel Kennedy

NEW YORK, Nov 26 (MNI) – The U.S. Treasury market did better Monday, led by
the back end, but volume was light while the markets braced for an eventful
week.

The 10-year note hit a low yield of 1.64% Monday after grazing a high yield
of 1.70% in the Friday after Thanksgiving.

It was a nice little profit for those that stepped into the market at the
lows last Wednesday and Friday. It also put a chink in the plans of those
calling for 10-year yields to continue to rise, perhaps to 1.86% or higher.

But it is not over until it is over, and the events this week could push
the market lower or solidify sentiment at current levels.

First, it is not your imagination! Greece has yet to be awarded the next
tranche of aid. The last we heard was that the officials at the meeting were
taking a technical break.

Second, U.S. Congress returns this week and headlines should begin to
emerge at some point on the dreaded “fiscal cliff.”

FTN Financial’s Jim Vogel said a survey of weekend commentary came up with
three possible scenarios and the probabilities for each are about equal:

1) Agreement possible on many important issues, but not all;

2) Minor agreement to keep government functional but longer-term fight
extends well into 2013;

3) Political brinksmanship on both sides until pain becomes excruciating in
Feb.

Vogel says pessimism over the policy outlook is a key reason why Treasurys
are range bound.

“This week’s headlines could emphasize any one of the three directions,”
Vogel said in research note Monday morning.

In addition to possible headlines emanating from Europe and the U.S.
Congress this week on the fiscal cliff situation, the financial markets face a
full slate of data this week: durable goods, S&P/Case-Shiller home prices,
consumer confidence, new home sales, Fed’s beige book, weekly jobless claims,
pending home sales, GDP revision, and the MNI Chicago Report.

There is some concern that interest rates could rise if the outlook for the
fiscal cliff improves or if the data reverts back to its pre-Hurricane Sandy and
pre-U.S. election strength.

But most seem to believe that any backup would likely be bought markets as
the outlook for the economy remains squishy and that means ultra-low interest
rates will be here for some time.

Finally, Treasury will auction $99 billion in new 2-years, 5-years and
7-years this week.

While the market is well supported, it is important to remember that the
financial markets have now begun the countdown to year end. Primary dealers do
not like to add to positions at this time of year and investors are also in the
process of closing their books.

As the year draws closer to a close, this can make it difficult for sellers
to get out of paper easily.

This week is also month-end and that could create some needs in the market
for this week’s auctions. Barclays Capital says the preliminary extension for
Treasurys is 0.08 years and for agency mortgage-backed securities it is 0.07
years. These could be revised in the final figures this week.

NOTE: Talk From the Trenches is a daily compendium of chatter from Treasury
trading rooms, as well as some sister market trading rooms, and is offered as a
gauge of the mood in the financial markets. It is not necessarily hard, verified
news.

–MNI New York Bureau; tel: +1 212-669-6434; email: ikennedy@mni-news.com

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