You can’t fight the chart and oil bulls need to take a long look at the WTI picture.
Crude is down nearly $2 today to $99.65. The 55-day moving average is support at $99.31 but the short-term rebound/uptrend since mid-March has given way. The failure of oil’s bounce at the 61.8% retracement of the early March decline is also a negative sign.
WTI crude oil
There isn’t much to point to on the fundamental side. The ISM manufacturing data was a touch soft but it’s a sentiment, momentum and technical trade more than anything. Later today, API crude stockpile numbers are due out and expected to show a 2.5m barrel increase (out at 4:30 pm ET).
I’ve been long oil but it’s time to scale out.
