WASHINGTON (MNI) – The following is the text of the September
IBD/TIPP Consumer Optimism report released Tuesday:
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index increased 1.7 points, or 3.9%,
in September, posting 45.3 vs. 43.6 in August. The index is 1.5 points
below its 12-month average of 46.8 and 0.9 points above its reading of
44.4 in December 2007, when the economy entered into the recession, and
5.5 points below its all-time average of 50.8.
Note: Index readings above 50 indicate optimism; below 50 indicate
pessimism.
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has a good track record of
foreshadowing the confidence indicators put out later each month by the
University of Michigan and The Conference Board. IBD/TIPP conducted the
national poll of 908 adults from September 7 to September 12. The margin
of error is +/-3.5 percentage points.
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has three key components, two
of which improved in August.
– The Six-Month Economic Outlook, a measure of how consumers feel
about the economy’s prospects in the next six months, declined 0.9
points, or 2.0%, to 44.2. When compared to December 2007, the index
shows a gain of 12.1 points.
– The Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel
about their own finances in the next six months, improved 3.6 points, or
7.3%, to reach 52.8.
– Confidence in Federal Economic Policies, a proprietary IBD/TIPP
measure of views on how government economic policies are working,
improved 2.2 points, or 6.0%, to reach 38.8.
“Though consumers are pessimistic about the outlook for the
economy, they are optimistic about their personal finances. Jobs
continue to hurt confidence. Forty two percent of consumers think that
chances of a second recession are high,” said Raghavan Mayur, president
of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, IBD’s polling
partner.
“Recent rallies in the stock market may be helping some Americans
feel better about their own finances,” said Terry Jones, associate
editor of Investor’s Business Daily. “But the continued slow-growth
recovery and 9.6% unemployment rate have certainly hurt overall.”
The Breakdown
This month, only three of the 21 demographic groups that IBD/TIPP
tracks were above 50 on the Economic Optimism Index. The highest index
scores were for Black/Hispanic Americans (60.4) and Democrats (60.1).
The reading for Republicans was 29.0 and Independents was 43.5.
Sixteen groups advanced on the index, five groups declined.
On the Economic Outlook component, four of the groups IBD/TIPP
tracks scored in optimistic territory. The highest index scores were
for 18 to 24 year olds (51.3), Democrats (58.3), and Black/Hispanic
Americans (58.5).
On the Personal Financial component, seventeen of the groups
IBD/TIPP tracks scored in optimistic territory. The index improved from
its twelve month low of 49.2 in August to 52.8 in September. Nineteen
groups advanced on the index while two groups declined.
On the Federal Policies component, only two of the 21 demographic
groups tracked were above 50. The index improved from its twelve month
low of 36.6 in August to 38.8 in September. Thirteen groups advanced
on the index, while eight groups declined.
** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **
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