WASHINGTON (MNI) – The following is the text of the December
IBD/TIPP Consumer Optimism report released Tuesday:
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index improved by 2.2 points, or
5.4%, in December posting 42.8 vs. 40.6 in November. The index is 0.1
points below its 12-month average of 42.9 and 1.6 points below its
reading of 44.4 in December 2007 when the economy entered into the
recession, and 7.2 points below its all-time average of 50.0.
Note: Index readings above 50 indicate optimism; below 50 indicate
pessimism.
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has a good track record of
foreshadowing the confidence indicators put out later each month by the
University of Michigan and The Conference Board. IBD/TIPP conducted the
national poll of 909 adults from December 4 to December 11. The margin
of error is +/-3.3 percentage points.
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has three key components, all
of which increased in December.
– The Six-Month Economic Outlook, a measure of how consumers feel
about the economy’s prospects in the next six months, increased 2.0
points, or 4.9%, to 42.8. The sub-index was 32.1 when the economy
entered the last recession in December 2007.
– The Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel
about their own finances in the next six months, gained 3.2 points, or
6.5%, to reach 52.8.
– Confidence in Federal Economic Policies, a proprietary IBD/TIPP
measure of views on how government economic policies are working rose
1.5 points, or 4.8%, to reach 32.9.
“Consumer confidence continues to be in vulnerable territory
despite its improvement for the fourth month in a row. According to our
TIPP poll, 23% of households currently have at least one member
unemployed and looking for employment. This translates to 30 million
Americans and a job seeker rate of 19.4%,” said Raghavan Mayur,
president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, IBD’s
polling partner.
“Slow progress on the jobs front and the failure of the president
and Congress to address America’s chronic deficit problem continue to
hurt Americans’ confidence,” said Terry Jones, associate editor for
Investor’s Business Daily. “While many Americans expect a better outlook
personally, their feelings about the job the federal government is doing
in managing the country remains near rock-bottom.”
The Breakdown
This month, two of the 21 demographic groups that IBD/TIPP tracks
were above 50 on the Economic Optimism Index. Seventeen groups increased
on the index.
On the Economic Outlook component, two of the 21 groups that
IBD/TIPP tracks scored in optimistic territory. Sixteen groups
improved in December.
On the Personal Financial component, sixteen of the groups IBD/TIPP
tracks scored in optimistic territory. Nineteen groups improved on the
component and two declined.
On the Federal Policies component, all of the 21 demographic groups
tracked were below 50. Fifteen groups advanced on the component and six
declined.
** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **
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